Editor’s note: I wrote this article for the Bob Broeg (STL) SABR Chapter newsletter which was released on Opening Day 2023. Let’s get an update as to how well (or poorly) my predictions performed. Current SP ranks are in parentheses. Analysis will follow.
Gibbs’s Top SP Rankings
Corbin Burnes (MIL)
Gerrit Cole (NYY)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA)
Aaron Nola (PHI)
Dylan Cease (CHW)
Brandon Woodruff (MIL)
Shane McClanahan (TB)
Julio Urias (LAD)
Justin Verlander (HOU)
Alec Manoah (TOR)
Listed above are my top 10 rankings for starting pitchers in major league baseball for the 2023 season. These rankings are created with a fantasy focus in mind, in particular the standard 5 x 5 rotisserie game which uses wins, strikeouts, ERA, WHIP, and saves as the 5 pitching categories.
Some keys to doing well with this exercise are choosing pitchers from good teams who are capable of pitching a lot of innings with lots of strikeouts while avoiding injuries. That last aspect is much more challenging than you might realize. Last year, two of my top ten suffered injuries making them duds for the season. Walker Buehler (LAD) only made 12 starts on the season, eventually having Tommy John surgery in August. Freddy Peralta (MIL) missed 88 days due to shoulder inflammation. I had Buehler ranked 3rd and Peralta ranked 10th. If I can just avoid major injuries like that, my rankings should be pretty solid. Everyone else finished as a top 30 pitcher, which means they produced quality innings for my fantasy teams. This season, Carlos Rodon was my 10th ranked pitcher before news broke of his impending IL stint to start the season.
Corbin Burnes (MIL, 18)
Burnes is impressive in every category except for wins. In 2022, he led the NL in strikeouts (243), ranked 4th in innings pitched, 5th in WHIP, 10th in ERA, and 2nd in Eno Sarris’s STUFF+ model (126), four points behind Cole. STUFF+ is “sticky” (i.e. has a high correlation with rest of season as well as next season) allowing analysts to predict how well a pitcher might do this season as well as the next.
Burnes 12 wins ranked 22nd in MLB pushing his overall fantasy pitcher ranking down to 10th. However, he had an impressive 24.10% K-BB% (strikeout – walk rate), 2.91 SIERRA (which is the most predictive statistic of ERA for the following season), with three pitches producing a CSW (called strike plus whiff) rate of at least 33%. These advanced statistics indicate Burnes will be in for a good season as long as the Brewers can help him win a few more games – hopefully not at the expense of the Cardinals.
Gerrit Cole (NYY, 2)
Drafted #1 in the 2011 MLB draft, Cole has lived up to the high expectations placed on him. He eclipsed 200 IP for the 5th time in his career earning his 5th All Star appearance in the process. He led all of baseball in strikeouts with 257, 14 more than Burnes. Cole’s overall CSW rate is 34% which is 3rd best in baseball featuring 3 pitches with at least a 35% CSW rate. For the past three seasons combined, Cole ranks best in STUFF+, 1 point ahead of Burnes.
Believe it or not, Cole also could use some help with wins from his team, the New York Yankees. He only earned 13 of them last year, ranking 17th in MLB.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA, 69)
Alcantara was an international signee of the Cardinals in 2013. He ended up pitching for the Cardinals in September 2017 appearing in 8 games before the Cardinals thought that it was best to trade him along with my 18th ranked SP this year, Zac Gallen (MIA), for OF Marcell Ozuna. Well, since then, Alcantara has made two All Star games and is the reigning Cy Young award winner while Ozuna has accumulated 1.9 WAR in the past 5 seasons, which is about 1/3 of his WAR total in 2017 (5.6 WAR). I’ll let you be the judge in determining who won that trade.
Although Alcantara is not quite as devastating as other pitchers ranking 65th in CSW (28.9% overall) and 19th in K-BB%, he makes up for it by his ability to stay healthy and go deep into games. Alcantara lead all pitchers in innings pitched by 23 innings averaging more than 7 IP in his 32 starts. Even if his innings might not be the same quality as other pitchers, his quantity was good enough to push Alcantara up to 2nd overall in SP rankings in 2022.
Aaron Nola (PHI, 31)
Nola only finished 26th in SP rankings in 2022 and has only 1 All Star appearance under his belt (2018), yet I still believe in his ability. His 33.6% CSW rate ranked 5th in 2022 with a devastating 25.5% K – BB% rate which ranked 4th behind Ohtani, Cole, and Rodon.
Nola is a pretty consistent workhorse pitching more than 200 IP three out of the past four full seasons. His 205 IP in 2022 was good for second most.
Nola’s biggest problem is finding wins. His 11 wins ranked 31st in MLB, tied with Adam Wainwright. Surely the World Series losers can find a way to win more games for him in 2023, right?!
Dylan Cease (CHW, 81)
Cease was the darling of my King’s Court team, the top league in Baseball365’s Facebook group, draft. He finished as the 6th best SP, but I was able to draft him in round 7 with the 28th SP off the board. Everyone in this group won their league in 2021 which allowed them to compete in this league. Several are in the “industry” producing fantasy baseball content such as podcasts, online articles, and magazines. These guys seemingly knew what they were doing.
How good was Cease? He finished 5th in Ks, 12th in wins, 3rd in ERA. The one issue of concern is his walk rate (10.4%), the worst among the 45 qualified SPs in 2022. This concern is why many fantasy baseball drafters shied away from Cease heading into 2022 drafts.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL, 57)
Woodruff finished as the 25th top SP despite missing 31 days due to Raynaud’s disease “which causes some areas of the body – such as fingers and toes – to feel numb and cold in response to cold temperatures or stress.” (Staff, 2022) When he pitched, he was great. Woodruff finished 2022 with a 13-4 record, 3.05 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 190 Ks in 153.1 IP. Woodruff’s K-BB% was 23.9%, 10th best in MLB.
Woodruff’s repertoire is fantastic. He features four pitches with CSW rates at least 30%, with his curveball at an astonishing rate of 40.3%. His curveball was his 4th most used pitch in 2022, but starting in August he used it second most. If he continues with this usage pattern in 2023, the sky is the limit!
Shane McClanahan (TB, 42)
McClanahan missed 15 days in September with a shoulder impingement. According to WebMD.com, “It occurs when there is impingement of tendons or bursa in the shoulder from bones of the shoulder. Overhead activity of the shoulder, especially repeated activity, is a risk factor for shoulder impingement syndrome. Examples include: painting, lifting, swimming, tennis, and other overhead sports.” (David Zelman, 2021)
Rest, medication, and physical therapy can help alleviate this issue. McClanahan was noticeably worse in the four games he started after coming back from the injury (1 – 3, 5.21 ERA in 19 IP), but was good in his one playoff start (7 IP, 7 H, 5 Ks, 2 ER) losing to Cleveland in the Wild Card round. While I would not recommend McClanahan for a dynasty team (where you keep your players forever), I do like his skills heading into the 2023 season.
McClanahan’s 2022 SIERRA (2.82) ranked 4th among all SPs behind Ohtani, Cole, and Nola. This is the statistic that is the best predictor of ERA the next season. McClanahan’s xFIP (2.60) was the best in all of MLB. This metric indicates that McClanahan’s true skills in avoiding earned runs is as good as it gets!
If he can avoid IL stints, he should be one of the best in 2023.
Julio Urias (LAD, 54)
Urias finished as the 3rd best SP in 2022, yet is still being drafted as the 17th SP in 2023. Urias’s main claim to fame is accumulating wins – the most in baseball the past 3 seasons (40), four more than Verlander. Since wins is one of the four categories that SPs contribute to the fantasy game, this is kind of a big deal.
Additionally, his 2.62 ERA during the same time period ranks only behind Burnes. If you play for a good team and can avoid giving up runs, you are valuable in fantasy baseball.
Justin Verlander (NYM, 23)
Upon returning from Tommy John surgery, Verlander went out and won the AL Cy Young award in 2022. Verlander finished 2nd in wins (18), 1st in ERA (1.75) and 1st in WHIP (0.829) in MLB. Those are the numbers that matter in fantasy baseball, so needless to say if you drafted him in the 6th round last year, you got yourself a steal. He missed 18 days in September with a strained calf, but performed well when he returned from the IL.
If he can avoid injuries, this 40-year old and future Hall of Famer should still be one of the best in baseball.
Alec Manoah (TOR, 250)
Similar to Urias, Manoah is not getting the appreciation he deserves. Manoah is being drafted as the 20th top SP this year, according to NFBC draft data. He finished 4th in the 2022 rankings! How did he accomplish this? He plays on a good team, so he accumulated 16 wins (5th best in MLB), had a 2.24 ERA (4th best), finished with a 0.99 WHIP (10th best), and produced 180 strikeouts (19th best).
What drafters are most worried about when it comes to Manoah is the quality of his pitches as evidenced by his STUFF+ number (99, 28th best), one point less than Jordan Montgomery. Montgomery finished 46th in SP ranks but was significantly better while pitching for the Cardinals (3.11 ERA) than he was when he pitched in New York (3.69 ERA). If the floor for Manoah is Montgomery in St. Louis, that’s not too bad.
Analysis (end of year)
Trying to predict the top 10 SPs is more challenging than it originally appeared. Gerrit Cole is my only top 10 SP to end up in the top 10 ranking 2nd in 2023. As has been well documented, Manoah (3 – 9, 5.87 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 19 starts), has been a disaster all season long. He performed better than only 23 SPs! Burnes (10 – 8, 3.39 ERA, 1.069 WHIP in 32 starts) pulled it together in the second half pretty nicely. Alcantara (7 – 12, 4.14 E.R.A., 1.213 WHIP in 28 starts) ended the season early with injury. Aaron Nola (12 – 9, 4.46 ERA, 1.151 WHIP in 32 starts) was fairly solid most of the year. Dylan Cease (7 – 9, 4.58 ERA, 1.418 WHIP in 33 starts) was way overrated! Woodruff (5 – 1, 2.28 ERA, 0.821 WHIP in 11 starts) spent much of the year on the IL. Urias’s (11 – 8, 4.60 era, 1.159 whip IN 21 starts) season ended early due to the domestic abuse allegations. Justin Verlander (13 – 8, 3.22 ERA, 1.133 WHIP in 27 starts) was pretty solid for a forty-year old.
I’ve been coming up with lists like this for the past 4 seasons. This was the first year I sat down and tried to provide commentary as to why I am putting SPs on this list. I look forward to trying this exercise again in 2024, hopefully with some notable improvements. Enjoy your offseason!
SABR
GAMES and SIMULATIONS
COMMITTEE
