A look at the SABR G&S Daily League at the All-Star Break

SABR G&S – Daily

AS Break thoughts

We have made it to the All-Star break.  In SABR’s Games and Simulation Daily league, two teams currently lead the pack.  I thought it would be useful to see how these particular teams got to this point and lessons that we might be able to learn from the draft.  The league consists of 11 teams (originally scheduled to be 12).  The draft was an auction draft.  Unfortunately, two members were unable to attend the draft due to scheduling conflicts.  It is a daily league where owners have to set their lineups on a daily basis with a bi-weekly waivers (Sunday/Wednesday morning at 11:00 AM Eastern time).  The categories are a typical 5×5 roto league with full rosters (CI, MI, 5 OFs, 9 Ps).  

When  I go into any draft, I always think that I am as prepared as I can be.  Typically, the results tell a different story.  Listed below are the top 29 players that were selected at the auction along with their current value using the Razzball Player Rater  System.  You will find unexpected values grouped in with lots of heartbreak.  Of course, no one could have guessed that 2023’s NL MVP would tear his ACL by the end of the second month.  No one anticipated Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider making one start before succumbing to a UCL surgery.  Yet, these things happened.  Avoiding injuries is quite helpful to ensuring fantasy baseball success.  Easy to say; not easy to do. 

Avoiding disappointments also seems unavoidable.  Twenty of the twenty-nine names listed below are showing a negative value based on what owners paid for them at the auction table and what they have earned so far this season.   Seven of the top eight have been a disaster for the fantasy teams, some due to injury while others just haven’t found their groove yet as of this writing.  Carroll (82 OPS+), Julio Rodriguez (101 OPS+), and Matt Olson (98 OPS+) are performing like average MLB players, not the top five players they were drafted to be. 

As I approached this draft, I decided I wanted top players.  This is a strategy change from how I used to approach auction drafts.  I was a student of Larry Schechter, our June G&S guest)  and have tried to follow the rules he laid out in Winning Fantasy Baseball.  However, when I did that, I always felt short.  I might get a bargain on a $1 player, but if he only earns $3 for the season, how much help did he really give me?  I could have gotten rid of him and tried the hot hand approach hoping for something that would earn well above my $2 profit.  

If you look at the list below, I paid for 5 of the top 12 players in the draft.  This was intentional.  Ohtani and Witt are the only ones currently earning a profit.  Both Betts and Tatis were profitable before missing time due to injury. 

For my pitching staff, I employed the Labadini method spending $10 on my pitching staff.  I paid $2 for Bryan Woo after missing out on the other SPs I had wanted at the time.  As you will read later, only one of those players remain on my staff.  I have worked the waiver wire as well as I could, turning that slim pitching staff into one set up for success in the second half.  

Top 29 players selected at auction

I took the time to determine the current top 29 players according to their roto values using the Razzball Player Rater System.  So far, Ohtani has produced the most value ($55.90).  I paid $37 for him at the auction giving me a surplus of $18.90.  That was a nice pick for me.  Both Gunnar Henderson ($33.00) and Marcell Ozuna ($34.50) have surpluses greater than $30.  The owners of those respective teams (Vermont Green Sox, BigDave11) have to feel great about their ability to find gems at bargain bin rates.  Freddie Freeman is the one name on this list that has produced a deficit to this point (-$14.10), but he still ranks as the 27th best player and has been a solid anchor for his team TheFever carrying them to a tie for first place at the All-Star break.     

Top 29 Roto values at All Star Break

This list, one name stands out – Brenton Doyle.  Doyle was not drafted and has been picked up by three different owners.  On April 21, Vermont picked him up for $10 FAAB.  Eventually, he found little use for him.  On May 19, Gibbs picked him up for $2.  He let him go when he went on the road.  On May 29, rBecker picked him up for $25.  His home/road split is likely the reason for Doyle’s availability.  At home, he is an All Star producing a slash line of .346/.407/.588 (144 OPS +) producing 7 home runs and 11 SBs.  These are the numbers produced by legends!  However, on the road, Doyle is producing .217/.289/.372 (63 OPS+) with 8 home runs and 9 stolen bases.  Are these numbers you need to own?  Maybe.  

Team Gibbs

I only have 9 players on my roster from the draft.  I had a strategy to pay big for foundational pieces.  At this point, only 4 of these (44.4%) are earning a profit with several of them producing pretty big deficits due to injury (Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis) or poor performance (Julio Rodriguez, Pete Alonso).  Ohtani was my best buy.  The value of my strategy is that I was able to quickly pivot to other players when they became available on the waiver wire (more on that later). 

Team Fever

TeamFever still has 26 of his players!  Three of his top four players have earned a profit with Freeman earning $24.90 himself.  Technically, he’s earning a deficit, but he’s still one of the better players at this point in the season.  TeamFever did some remarkable work with his pitching staff.  He paid $13 for Gilbert, $10 for Peralta, $9 for Skubal, $9 for Berrios, and $7 for Joe Ryan.  Additionally, he hit on Tanner Scott paying just $1.  His draft strategy was more of a balanced approach than mine, picking up 6 or 7 good bats along with 6 or 7 pitchers that he can count on week-to-week.    

Notable Free Agent Acquisitions

TheFever drafted a pretty solid team.  As a result, they have only made four transactions.  They picked up David Robertson for $7 on March 20 hoping he was the Rangers closer.  They picked up Joel Payamps for $15 on April 21 when it seemed like he was the closer in Milwaukee.  They picked up Ryan O’Hearn for $24 on May 5.  They paid $43 for Trevor Megill on May 12, who was indeed the Brewers closer.  

In contrast, I have made 102 transactions.  I won’t bore you with the details of all of them. Some notable pickups with the stats I accumulated after picking them up. 

• Jared Jones (April 3, $54 FAAB) – 4-6, 85.1 IP, 88 Ks, 3.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
• Bryce Turang (April 7, $15) – 86 G, 42 Rs, 6 HRs,36 RBIs, 24 SBs, .272/.338/.387 
• Nathan Lowe (April 24, $57) – 61 G, 27 Rs, 6 HRs, 33 RBIs, 2 SBs, .264/.348/.396 
• Nolan Jones (April 28, $57) – 24 G, 9 Rs, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 1 SB, .254/.393/.380
• Christian Scott (May 5, $25) – 2-6, 43.1 IP, 35 Ks, 4.36 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
• Garrett Crochet (May 8, $0) – 4-2, 60.2 IP, 88 Ks, 1.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP
• Shane Baz (May 12, $12) – 0-1, 6 IP, 6 Ks, 5.23 ERA, 1.45 WHIP
• Tanner Bibee (May 15, $0) – 6-4, 59.1 IP, 75 Ks, 3.34 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
• Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. (May 22, $16) – 43 G, 18 Rs, 7 HRs, 29 RBIs, 1 SB, .288/.303/.459
• Lane Thomas (May 29, $0) – 44 G, 30 Rs, 6 HRs, 28 RBIs, 12 SBs, .287/.355/.477
• Pablo Lopez (June 26, $74) – 3-1, 24 IP, 34 Ks, 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP
• Vinne Pasquantino (June 26, $15) – 5 G, 4 Rs, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 0 SBs, .474/.476/.842
• Jeff Hoffman (July 3, $1) – 0-0, 4 IP, 6 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.25 WHIP, 2 Saves
• Edwin Diaz (July 7, $3) – 1-0, 2.2 IP, 3 Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.20 WHIP, 2 Saves
• Rece Hinds (July 10, $1) – 5 G, 5 Rs, 3 HRs, 6 RBIs, 2 SBs, .333/.400/.889

I made a lot of errant pickups as well, notably dropping Brice Turang for Bo Bichette.  But, I am content with how I have played the game so far.

Conclusion

Congratulations to all the league leaders at the All Star break.  Thank you for all who are participating in this league and our other SABR Games and Simulation leagues.  Good luck to all! 

Jeremy Gibbs

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