Results from 2024 Over/Under Predictions

Results from 2024 Over/Under Predictions

By Jeremy Gibbs, Secretary of the Bob Broeg (STL) SABR Chapter

My friend, Dennis Timko and I, developed the over/under betting lines above throughout the offseason as we were drafting our fantasy baseball teams discussing every aspect of the upcoming season.  Some of these lines were based on projections; others were based on hopes and dreams by various analysts.  Overall, I feel like we did a pretty good job setting the lines and a decent job predicting the outcomes.  

Let’s examine each of these briefly. 

• Robbie Ray had Tommy John surgery in May 2023. The typical recovery time is between 12 – 18 months. I leaned on the lower end of that range; Dennis leaned on the higher end. Ultimately, Ray made 7 starts with his first start taking place on July 24th and his final start taking place on August 25th. He only lasted one month even though most experts thought that he would return before the end of the season.  
• Tyler Kinley took over the closer role for the Rockies at the end of 2023 closing out 3 of the final 4 games. He was not the closer for a long time, but finally grabbed the role in September before losing the final two weeks due to injury. 
• Austin Martin was an early 50th round draft candidate (after pick 740) of mine.  Apparently, I made a convincing case to Dennis as he not only drafted him before I could, but also went over on his projected 99.5 plate appearances. Lucky for me, those of us that attended SABR 52 up in Minneapolis got to see him in person slapping two singles in the game we attended Friday, August 9th vs. the Cleveland Guardians.  
• Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams were the hot Guardians prospects coming into the season. One of the pitching experts that we both listen to is Nick Pollack. He started touting Williams as the better of the two. I was not convinced, believing Bibbee’s talent was far superior. This wasn’t really a fair fight as Williams spent nearly 100 days on the injured list.  
• Jorge Mateo was the best fielding SS in the American League in 2023 which led me to believe that he would still get plenty of playing time even though the Orioles had several quality prospects which would be pushing him for playing time in 2024. He put up a fine season, but with very limited playing time (208 PA).  
• This was our biggest miss, but that’s probably not our fault. When a player hits a home run every 10.5 plate appearances, it’s not unreasonable to extrapolate that and wonder how many home runs could 600 PA bring? Unfortunately, Nelson Velázquez did not stay in the majors long enough to find out, getting demoted back to Iowa on June 24th. By the way, the answer to that question is 57 home runs! Thirty seemed like a lock.  
• Trying to figure out recovery time for the Tommy John pitchers has been a hobby for my wife, who works in the medical field, and myself. When I describe the diagnosis, she will typically give me a red light in regards to his draft status. Dennis is a podiatrist. Yet, it seems like we are as clueless as anyone else. Maybe next year, we should just flip a coin. Even though Walker Buehler had a full 21 months to recover from his surgery, he simply was not ready to perform when the season began. Buehler’s first 8 starts went so poorly (1-4, 5.84 ERA in 37 IP) that the team demoted him. Next time, I’ll just flip a coin.
• Derek Carty’s BATX projection system is considered one of the best since it was the first to take into account Statcast data. In his major league career, Steven Kwan had hit a total of 11 home runs (6 and 5 respectively). BatX was projecting him for a measly 2 home runs. We sat the over/under at 4.5. Perhaps, I should have dug into his minor league stats a little more and noticed that he did have 12 home runs in just 341 plate appearances, making the over seem like a reasonable guess. Looks like projections failed me this time! 
• Both Dennis and I believed that the Dodgers were the best team on paper. We just did not think that they would steamroll everyone. Injuries happen. The Dodgers are notorious for “faking” injuries to their pitchers to give them extra rest. So, we both thought that they would be good, just not historically good. We were right.
• I am completely impressed with our betting line for the Cardinals. We came about as close to it as we could. When we set the line at 84.5 wins, I heard a few comments at our local SABR meeting here in St. Louis who expressed the hope that we were going to be wrong about this one.  
• If you are a Cardinals fan, you likely remember all the 2023 drama surrounding Willson Contreras and his playing time. I took that as a sign that the Cardinals would use Willson at DH more often in 2024, opening up more starts for Ivan Herrera at catcher.  What I did not anticipate was the injury that Contreras would sustain after having his forearm fractured by a swing from New York Mets D.H. J.D. Davis caused him to miss 47 days. He would miss another 37 days after fracturing his finger on August 25. This opened the door for Herrera early in the season although rookie Pedro Pages surpassed him in playing time after the second injury.    
• In 2023, Zack Thompson appeared in 25 games for the Cardinals making 9 starts.  Dennis was convinced that he would replicate these numbers. I was not. Thompson did start two games at the beginning of the season, including the second game the Cardinals played. However, after appearing in the bullpen three more times, he was sent back down to Memphis never to return to St. Louis again.    
• Victor Scott II was one of the most hyped prospects in fantasy baseball this year, especially after it was announced that he would be starting on Opening Day after Dylan Carlson went down with an injury late in Spring Training. Manager Oliver Marmol expressed full confidence. “If he’s here, he’s going to play. He’s here to play. I’m extremely excited to watch him.” (“Victor Scott II Set to Make Major League Debut – West Virginia University Athletics” 2024). Unfortunately, after 20 games, Mamol felt like he had seen enough sending Scott back to Memphis.  At the time of his demotion, Scott was 5-for-59 (.085 BA) with just 2 stolen bases.  Scott did get recalled on August 5th and did much better putting together 21 hits in 86 at bats (.244 BA) with 3 stolen bases.  Unfortunately, 2 + 3 < 9.5. Our line seemed like a good estimate of what he was capable of considering that he had stolen 94 bases the year before, the most of any minor leaguer albeit for AA Springfield. In 2024, he ended up stealing 30 bases during his time in Memphis in addition to the five he stole while in St. Louis.
• Andrew Kitteridge was traded to the Cardinals over the offseason after spending seven seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays. During his time in Tampa, he accumulated 16 saves, eight of which came during the 2021 season. Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley spent 83 days on the injured list during 2023 with a lower arm forearm strain in his throwing arm.  Dennis and I were both convinced that Kitteridge would fall into save opportunities. We sat a fairly low bar of 4.5. Unfortunately for us, Helsley stayed healthy leading the league in saves with 49 leaving only six saves for the rest of the bullpen, only one of which went to Kitteridge.  
• Our friend Andrew Spradlin is the one who came up with the Oliver Marmol ejection line. I was not aware of his ejection count – three in 2022, six in 2023.  An over/under of 4.5 seemed like a reasonable guess. He ended up with six, many of which came from arguing balls and strikes.  
• In 2023, Juan Soto hit 35 home runs while playing for Padres while Aaron Judge hit 37 playing for the Yankees (72 total). With the trade of Soto to the Yankees, we thought it would be fun to come up with a betting line for the total number of home runs the pair might hit. We set the betting line at a modest 74.5. Little did we know, Judge would almost replicate his 2022 season while Soto would set a career high in home runs with 41. The over was an easy win with this bet. 
• Some of the baseball analysts were quietly talking about Jordan Walker as a potential 20/20 candidate. Neither Dennis nor I were buying it. In 2023, Walker hit 16 home runs while stealing seven bases in 465 plate appearances. In 2024, Walker was only given 178 plate appearances making a 20/20 season completely out of reach. He ended up with just 5 home runs and 1 stolen base.  
•  Corey Seager has spent time on the injured list EVERY SINGLE YEAR since 2013!  The question is not if he will miss time, but how much?  In 2023, Seager spent 44 days on the IL. In 2022, he spent just 3 days on the IL. In 2021, he spent 75 days on the IL.  In 2024, he ended the season on the IL because he had surgery to repair a sports hernia. Unfortunately for me, that operation took place on September 4th AFTER he had already accumulated 500 plate appearances. Ironically, he had this same surgery in January of this year, leading me to believe pretty confidently that he would have a delayed season leading to a poor season for him. His 5.0 WAR was not nearly as good as the 6.9 WAR he accumulated the year before, but it was hardly a down season as he hammered 30 home runs producing 74 RBIs.  
• Shane Baz had Tommy John surgery on September 28, 2022 causing him to miss the entire 2023 season. We knew he would pitch in 2024. The question was how much. We set the line at 79.5 innings pitch. We could not have come any closer! Baz ended up working 79 ⅓ innings pitched. If he had gotten one more out, the over would have been satisfied. As it was, we both swung and missed on this one.  
• Dennis really believed in Nick Martinez. I thought he was going to get starts when other pitchers in their rotation was injured. What I failed to take into account is how often Reds pitchers get injured. In 2023, Hunter Greene spent 70 days on the IL while  Nick Lodolo spent 144 days on the IL. That should have been a big hint that Nick Martinez was going to eventually find starts. And that he did! Martinez made four starts in April, but just one in May. In June and July, he worked exclusively out of the bullpen.  Then, injuries set in opening up the spot for Martinez to work as a starter August 5th through the rest of the season. During that stretch, he made 11 starts pushing his total to 16 starts surpassing our betting line of 13.5.  
• For the past four seasons, Corbin Burnes has been in the debate for who is the best pitcher in baseball. I still believed. Dennis thought that Tarik Skubal, who missed half of 2023 after having surgery to repair a flexor tendon in August 2022. I was not convinced that his health would hold up. Burnes finished as the 9th best starting pitcher (38th overall player). Skubal finished as the best starting pitcher (8th overall player).  Once again, Dennis was right! Trying to predict how players will perform after an injury will continue to mystify me.  

I hope that you had fun reading this article and perhaps even participating in your own version using our betting lines.  Obviously, no money was exchanged.  We just like to try to predict how the season will play out to the best of our ability which is quite helpful in the fantasy baseball games that we play.  

Jeremy Gibbs

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