Statistical accuracy comparison between DMB and OOTP for 2023 season

Originally posted on Tapatalk Fans of DMB Nov 2025

https://www.tapatalk.com/groups/fansofdmb/statistical-accuracy-comparison-between-dmb-and-oo-t7230.html

I used the 2023 As Played Season to compare the statistical accuracy of DMB and OOTP. For both, I ran the sim 5 times. I was surprised that the accuracy between DMB and OOTP was closer than I expected.

Interestingly, when looking at each teams win/loss record, I calculated the delta between DMB-actual wins, and OOTP-actual wins. The overall delta wins for DMB was zero, while OOTP was within 3 wins (this delta of 3 looks like it was due to rainouts in the OOTP games).
When looking at this delta, it seems to imply, as an example, that the 2023 Orioles in real life performed much better than the stats would indicate, while the 2023 Royals in real life performed much worse than the stats would indicate.

Team Batting

Avg	OBP	SLG	Sim
0.248	0.32	0.414	Actual
0.248	0.32	0.413	DMB Avg
0.249	0.32	0.416	OOTP Avg

Team Pitching

ERA	BABIP	OPS	Sim
4.33	0.297	0.734	Actual
4.26	0.294	0.734	DMB Avg
4.38	0.295	0.736	OOTP Avg

Division Standings

	Actual		DMB		OOTP		DMB OOTP
AL East	W	L	W	L	W	L	W delta	W delta
Baltimore Orioles	101	61	90	72	88	74	-11	-13
Tampa Bay Rays	99	63	94	68	96	66	-5	-3
Toronto Blue Jays	89	73	88	74	82	80	-1	-7
New York Yankees	82	80	78	84	82	80	-4	0
Boston Red Sox	78	84	79	83	80	82	1	2
	Actual		DMB		OOTP		DMB OOTP
AL Central	W	L	W	L	W	L	W delta	W delta
Minnesota Twins	87	75	95	67	91	71	8	4
Detroit Tigers	78	84	77	85	72	90	-1	-6
Cleveland Guardians	76	86	76	86	79	83	0	3
Chicago White Sox	61	101	54	108	63	99	-7	2
Kansas City Royals	56	106	67	95	70	92	11	14
	Actual		DMB		OOTP		DMB OOTP
AL West	W	L	W	L	W	L	W delta	W delta
Houston Astros	90	72	91	71	94	68	1	4
Texas Rangers	90	72	95	67	96	66	5	6
Seattle Mariners	88	74	95	67	89	73	7	1
Los Angeles Angels	73	89	76	86	74	88	3	1
Oakland Athletics	50	112	55	107	52	110	5	2
	Actual		DMB		OOTP		DMB OOTP
NL East	W	L	W	L	W	L	W delta	W delta
Atlanta Braves	104	58	100	62	97	65	-4	-7
Philadelphia Phillies	90	72	96	66	104	58	6	14
Miami Marlins	84	78	76	86	75	87	-8	-9
New York Mets	75	87	78	84	79	83	3	4
Washington Nationals	71	91	63	99	61	101	-8	-10
	Actual		DMB		OOTP		DMB OOTP
NL Central	W	L	W	L	W	L	W delta	W delta
Milwaukee Brewers	92	70	84	78	99	63	-8	7
Chicago Cubs	83	79	86	76	91	71	3	8
Cincinnati Reds	82	80	76	86	78	84	-6	-4
Pittsburgh Pirates	76	86	74	88	69	93	-2	-7
St. Louis Cardinals	71	91	78	84	73	89	7	2

	Actual		DMB		OOTP		DMB OOTP
NL West	W	L	W	L	W	L	W delta	W delta
Los Angeles Dodgers	100	62	101	61	101	62	1	1
Arizona Diamondbacks	84	78	85	77	86	76	1	2
San Diego Padres	82	80	91	71	88	74	9	6
San Francisco Giants	79	83	76	86	77	85	-3	-2
Colorado Rockies	59	103	54	108	46	116	-5	-13

sum of W delt							0	3

Here is the data for runs scored (allowed has the same value). Interestingly, OOTP came out closer to the real data than DMB – but it terms of percentage both are within 1% of actual runs scored.

Team Runs Scored
RS	Sim	Percent Delta
22432	Actual
22277	DMB Avg	-0.69%
22485	OOTP Avg	0.24%

At some point in the future, I hope to include Action Sports PC Baseball since I was planning on buying it for the first time this year in addition to DMB and OOTP.